On the first day of the new year, the market experienced a downturn as large tech took a hit, leading the way down aggressively (at the time of writing 01/02/24). While a pullback is expected due to the market being overbought for a long time, it’s time to revisit what Wall Street gurus predict at the beginning of 2023. Tom Lee, a perma-bull known for consistently bullish calls on the stock market, was closest to the actual market move, which closed at 4769 on the last day of the year. However, his prediction of S&P above 4800 for 2022 turned out to be the worst bear in years, closing at 3839. It’s doubtful if anyone takes these predictions seriously.
Alongside guru predictions, paying attention to these trends might be more meaningful:
Will the cooling labor market continue, and how far could it go?
Will cooling inflation rebound as it did in the 70s?
Will consumer spending still be able to remain resilient?
Is it a soft landing for real?
Will corporate profit margins and earnings hold up?
Finally, how will the change in the psychology of investors affect the market?
In December, our long-term investment portfolio yielded a return of 8.52%, resulting in a cumulative gain of 94.8% since May 2020. In parallel, our dynamic investment portfolio has achieved a gain of 10.26%, contributing to an overall return of 47.31% since May 2020 (our latest performance report for detailed insights). As predicted in the previous quarter, our structured note portfolio demonstrated notable improvement in the context of exiting investments, driven by positive trends observed in November. Given the outstanding performance of Cathie Wood’s Ark funds in recent times, we anticipate that the weakest performer in our structured note portfolio, linked to the Ark’s fund, will also experience significant improvement in alignment with this bullish trend.
Now, let’s talk about AI, the tech prodigy moving faster than a toddler on a sugar high. GPT-5.0 might drop like the hottest album of 2024. But we’re still in the first stage of AI, which is Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI). And when it comes to using AI in the investment industry, it’s moving slower than a sloth in a hammock. There are just too many unpredictable factors, like the weather and whether Elon Musk will tweet something wild again. It’s a wild ride, folks. Just like watching Jim Cramer’s show—it’s a rollercoaster of fun, but please, don’t bet the farm based on it.